Ross Clark Ross Clark

Donald Trump’s ‘hunch’ about coronavirus is likely correct

Donald Trump is in the soup again, this time for appearing to reject the World Health Organisation’s estimate for the death rate from coronavirus (Covid-19): 3.4 per cent. ‘I think the 3.4 per cent is really a false number,’ he said on Thursday before adding that he had a ‘hunch’ that the real death rate is less than one per cent. Twitter, needless to say, immediately went into meltdown, the most polite response was to call him ‘irresponsible’.

Trump is not quite the person I would call upon for insight into matters relating to virology. He does, of course, have a reputation for shooting from the hip, yet his reasoning on this is more sound than many of his critics would admit. Indeed, the WHO itself was at pains to stress that it’s 3.4 per cent figure was not really an accurate mortality rate – it is simply the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. The problem is that while deaths from coronavirus are almost certain to be recorded, many mild cases of the disease will not have found their way into official figures. Some people, who suffer no more than the effects of a cold, may not even suspect they have the disease. Others may wonder whether they have it, but will self-isolate and not report their condition to a doctor.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College was on the radio on Thursday making exactly this point. Referring to the outbreak in Italy he said: ‘for every person who dies we think there might be 100 or over 200 people infected.’ If he is right, that would give a death rate of one per cent or less – exactly as Trump has claimed.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in